Climate change: Impact: temperatures to increase 6C by end of century

Emissions of CO2 have increased by almost a third over the last decade and the Earth is gradually losing its ability to absorb the harmful gas, according to scientists.
"The global trends we are on with CO2 emissions from fossil fuels suggest that we're heading towards 6C of global warming," said Professor Corinne Le Quere of the University of East Anglia, who led the study.
Researchers at the UEA and the British Antarctic Survey measured levels of pollution from a global network of monitoring stations.
Since 2000 emissions have been rising by an average 3.4 per cent every year, compared to one per cent in the 1990s.
Much of the increase is from developing countries like China and India that have seen a doubling in emissions since 1990 and now pollute more than the rich nations. Cheap coal, that overtook oil as the most polluting fossil fuel for the first time in 40 years, is also a problem.
The pollution equates to 1.3 tons of carbon per head for each person on the planet and increases atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide to 385 parts per million, up 38 per cent from pre-industrial levels.
Professor Le Quere said the situation could get worse as the world loses the ability to absorb greenhouse gases in natural "carbon sinks" like oceans and forests.
The report, published in the journal Nature Geoscience, found that over the past half century the average "airborne fraction" of carbon remaining in the atmosphere had probably increased from 40 to 45 per cent because the oceans were less able to absorb the greenhouse gas.
"The only way to control climate change is through a drastic reduction in global CO2 emissions," she warned.
However an earlier study by Dr Wolfgang Knorr, from the University of Bristol, found no evidence the world is losing its ability to absorb carbon. The study, published in Geophysicial Research Letters, found only tiny fluctuations in the amount being absorbed despite the massive hike in emissions over the last 50 years.
Professor Knorr said the two studies showed how difficult it is to calculate how much carbon dioxide is being absorbed by the Earth. Although his results showed no difference for now, he said the oceans may lose their ability to soak up carbon in the future.
"Our apparently conflicting results demonstrate what doing real science is like and just how difficult it is to accurately quantify such data," he said.



The full article may be found at http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/env...f-century.html

Read this article regarding the hottest year, so posting.

2009 one of world's hottest years since 1850

COPENHAGEN: This year is likely to rank as one of the "10 warmest" since 1850, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) said Tuesday in a report providing further evidence that the world is heating up.

The report by the Geneva-based organisation also found that the current decade was already warmer than the 1990s, which were in turn warmer than the 1980s.

"Large parts of southern Asia and central Africa are likely to have the warmest year on record," the report said.

And while a few weeks remain of 2009, data collected by the WMO between January and October suggests that average global temperatures were already 0.44 degrees Centigrade above the annual average for the 1961-1990 reference period.

"Warming is not uniform - there will still be cold winters and summers, but what we are talking about is a trend," WMO Secretary General Michel Jarraud said at the launch of the WMO report at the UN climate change conference underway in Copenhagen.

"Cold waves will become less frequent, and heat waves more frequent," he added.

While above-normal temperatures were recorded in most parts of the continents, the US and Canada experienced conditions that were cooler than average, the UN agency said.

China had its "third-warmest year in the last 50 years," Jarraud said, also mentioning "heatwaves in much of central and southern Europe" over the summer.

Australia also had its third-warmest year while in Africa, Burkina Faso, Zambia and Namibia were hit by floods affecting nearly one million people. El Salvador was also hit by intense storms, while severe flooding plighted India after a weak monsoon season.

The report also found that the extent of the Arctic sea ice in the summer was the third-lowest since satellite measurements began in 1979, trailing only 2007 and 2008, the lowest and second-lowest on record.

India suffered an "extreme heatwave" in May that caused 150 deaths, while a month later, northern China was hit by daily maximum temperatures above 40 degrees Centigrade and endured its "worst drought in five decades".

Food shortages were also experienced in East Africa, where Kenya has seen a 40 percent drop in its maize harvest.

The preliminary WMO information for 2009 was based on data from land-based weather and climate stations, ships and buoys, as well as satellites.

A full report is due in March, the agency said.

Link - http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/h...ow/5315049.cms