Development is always energy intensive. As nations develop so do their aspirations and energy needs.

Till 18th century we had two primary energy sources - wind and muscle power (animal, human). These sources had their limits; hence there was an equilibrium between man's aspiration and nature. That changed with the invention of the fossil fuel based engines. For the first time humans could control their energy production, thus giving wings to their ambitions.

I guess Man's discovery of the fossil fuel would have been akin to a child discovering a secret piggy bank full of treasures. The piggy bank - fossil fuel like coal, wood, petroleum would have seemed rather boundless to the 19th century Man. Since then, the seemingly boundless energy source has been exploited indiscriminately by the West (and now developing nations) to fuel developmental agendas. Today western countries have literally "graduated" to the developed status. The developing countries are still in their high schools.

In that period the human population has exploded to 6 billion today from 900 million. North America and Europe (graduates) constitute for 16% of world population, while the Asian + Latin Americans (high schoolers) account for 69% of the population. But these 16% graduates account for more than 60% or more of the total carbon emission. The biggest sources of carbon emission are coal and fossil fuel burning to generate electricity. Today the US produces about 9.5 tons of CO2 per person per year, compared to 2.4 tons per person per year in China, 0.6 in India, and 0.1 in Brazil. The average per capita emission from electricity and heat production in the E.U. is 3.3 tons per year. But even the High schoolers are graduating. For example, China’s CO2 emissions have increased by 120% since the beginning of the decade. China now exceeds the United States as the single largest GHG emitter, and accounts for more than a fifth of global GHG emissions.

Looks like the only certainty in future is a more accelerated upward spike in carbon emission. We can safely conclude that the price of human development is the health of Earth.

On a different note, somehow I feel India's rather obstinate stand on climate is justified in a weird way. It’s not ego, but rather practicality. Access to cheap energy is the key to rapid human development. And with a billion people India has to allocate its limited capital in the right places. After all, the first priority for a government is welfare for its citizens. Hence, India is justified in asking for subsidized access to green technology.

What Next?

West (Graduates) - The graduates still emit monstrous amount of GHG to sustain their decadent lifestyles. The per capita electricity consumption of an American is a whopping 1500 units compared to 50 by an Indian and 250 by the Chinese. A gargantuan, massive, immense investment has to be made to rationalize consumption, transition to greener technology and invest on efficient energy distribution models.

India, China, LATAM (high schoolers) - We are still at the cusp of the growth curve. Adopting greener technologies NOW would be cheaper and more impactful than say after 20 years. It’s imperative that the governments of the developing countries sensitize their citizens of rational use of energy and not commit the same mistakes as the developed nations.